Analysis- Nunes vs. Rousey: Who Will Come Out on Top?

Nunes vs. Rousey: Who Will Come Out on Top?

After over a year off, Ronda Rousey is making her long-awaited return to the UFC to take on women's bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes. For Nunes, it's her first title defense. Here's how these two champions match up in what promises to be one of the year's biggest fights.

Physical Attributes

Both fighters are in their athletic prime, as Nunes is 28 and Rousey is 29. They're also similar in size, as Nunes is 1 inch taller and has a 1-inch reach advantage.

Rousey should have a significant advantage, as she often does, in terms of overall athleticism. She was an Olympic athlete for years, which puts her far ahead of most other fighters. While Nunes has a reputation for slowing down in the later rounds of fights, Rousey also becomes significantly less effective later in fights. The two times her fights went past the first round (against Miesha Tate and Holly Holm), she looked noticeably worse the longer the fight went.

Striking

Nunes is a far more polished striker than Rousey, who is more of a wild brawler. They both have substantial power, especially in their right hands, but Rousey usually attempts to overwhelm opponents with her superior athleticism. Nunes, on the other hand, relies on her technical abilities.

Statistics support Nunes' striking superiority, as she lands 54 percent of her attempted strikes, compared to 52 percent for Rousey. More importantly, she avoids 50 percent of her opponent's strikes, while Rousey only avoids 45. The longer this fight stays on the feet, the more it favors Nunes.

Grappling

Rousey has a grappling advantage over Nunes, despite the fact that Nunes is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a brown belt in Judo. Rousey's excellent Judo skills make her a constant takedown and submission threat. She also pushed around Olympic wrestler Sara McMann in the clinch before finishing her with a brutal knee.

Rousey completes 73 percent of her takedowns, compared to 43 percent for Nunes. However, Nunes does fare better in terms of takedown defense, where she defends 73 percent of her opponent's' takedowns, compared to 50 percent for Rousey. Holly Holm was able to prevent Rousey's takedowns, although she did hurt Rousey with strikes first. The clinch battle between Rousey and Nunes could be a deciding factor in this fight.

Experience

Past fight results favor Rousey quite a bit, as she has more championship fights and has defeated multiple fighters with wins over Nunes. Their most recent common opponent is Cat Zingano, who scored a third-round TKO over Nunes towards the end of 2014. Rousey then submitted Zingano in 14 seconds at the beginning of 2015. Nunes also has four losses, whereas Rousey has dominated every opponent except for Holm. Over their respective careers, Rousey has consistently performed better than Nunes, which is the main reason that sports betting websites have her as a slight favorite.

The X-Factor: The Mental Edge

Rousey's mental state is an unknown variable in this fight. She hasn't fought in over a year, while during that time Nunes has fought twice. She also suffered a brutal knockout before taking time off, so she may not be the same fighter when she returns. Tate, who has fought both Rousey and Nunes, thinks that it all comes down to whether or not Rousey is at her best for this fight.

The Prediction: Rousey by Submission, First Round

Nunes could come out, stun Rousey with punches, and knockout or submit her within two minutes. However, Rousey has a track record of success at every level of competition. She's good at forcing opponents to fight her style of fight, at least for the first round. Expect Rousey to dispatch Nunes the same way she did most of her opponents, with an early takedown and an armbar.

Article Contributed by: Phil Oscarson